|
|
||||||||||||||||||
Travel Diary: CALGARY Cambridge Resource Conference by John Lee, CFA 04/18/2008 Calgary Cambridge Resource Conference (April 12th-13th, 2008) I had the pleasure to speak in Calgary at the Cambridge Investment Conference (http://www.cambridgehouse.ca/ch_calgary2008.html) this past April 12th and 13th. On Friday April 11th: I chatted with the cab driver, he said business is good. I had spent previous nights finishing taxes. I checked at the downtown Hyatt Hotel and took a brief nap before heading out for dinner with friends. While the scene was buzzing, it was not as crowded and cheery compared to my last year’s April visit (also for the conference). Calgary is a flat city without much to see, however I can’t speak more favorably for the friendly people. We got in VIP line at the most popular club by merely mentioning that we are out of town-ers, and the bouncer refused to take the $20 I had stuffed him! I had a 9:30am Panel on Sat morning so I called an early night. Saturday April 12th:
Willie’s view is that the world is heading to a catastrophe but I differ 180° with him as I believe we are experiencing industrialization on a global style. Record commodity prices, from oil to copper to food, while the US undergoes a recession clearly demonstrates the case.
We hosted a reception at Centini restaurant in downtown. What a fantastic place (albeit pricy). I had the most delicious scallop and bread there in a long time. The word “recommendation” is used carefully in the investment world, however in this instance I would not hesitate to recommend Centini on all occasions for those who like fine Italian cuisine. Sunday April 13th:
My last panel was on gold and currencies with Jon Nadler, Berry, and Roulston.
Jon had suggested a correction to $700/oz for gold. I simply don’t believe that will be the case due to the subprime problem, which has created moral hazards through bailouts and increasing food prices have caused panic particularly in Asia. My belief is that once gold bottoms around $850 - $900, an assault will pass $1,000. How high it will go, I don’t know. Last food for thought, RMB has broken through the 7 RMB to 1 USD barrier. Since China is one of world’s largest gold consumers, if we peg the gold price to the RMB at a constant of 7,000 RMB/oz and if the RMB were to appreciate to 5 RMB to 1 USD in the next 3 years, then 7,000 RMB/oz gold price in USD will be $1,400/oz. Crazy thinking? Who would have thought that the Euro would be trading at US $1.58 per euro today when it was US $0.88 per euro 7 years ago? The US largest trading deficit partner, China, has only seen its currency appreciating 14% so far from the peak. In short, be prepared to welcome a US $1,400/oz gold price and say goodbye to cheap Chinese goods. On Sunday night, we watched the Flames dunking out the Sharks. I was talking to a friend and turned my head to find flames down 0 – 3 within the first 5 min of the game. However, in the end the Flames beat the Sharks 4-3. I am not much of a hockey fan but what a game! The entire 17th Av went crazy for the victory, and it was great fun just to watch people. April 14 Monday: Monday I jetted back to Vancouver, for full days ahead. Comments can be emailed to: John Lee, CFA |
||
|
